Plan to Outshoot Your Opponents? Bad Idea…

Just playing around on NHL.com stats again and noticed that it looked like teams which had outshot their opponents didn’t appear to have a great record.  So I downloaded the stats to an excel sheet and realized, this little fact:

Record of teams when outshooting their opponent: 103-97-19
Record of teams when being outshot: 116-77-26

Because of the OT point, this is better shown wins vs. loss ratio (including OT).
Win/Loss Ratio of outshooting teams: .88 wins to every 1 loss.
Win/Loss Ratio of teams which are outshot: 1.12 wins to every 1 loss.

This is as of Friday, so things may have slightly changed, but, so far, teams that outshoot their opponents have done fairly significantly worse than those being outshot.  Why is this? I have a couple ideas, but don’t have a definitive answer.

  • Shots really don’t mean much in today’s game.  Goaltending is the difference.
  • Maybe shots just aren’t accurately counted. 
  • Mikeal Samualsson has completely ruined the value of a shot.
  • It is early and rediculous to be looking at a stat like this.
  • The NY Islanders are actually pretty good, but have the worst goaltending ever. (0-7-1 when outshooting their opponent) thus ruining this statistic almost themselves.
  • Washington has won every game they’ve been outshot. (6-0-0)   Vancouver somehow has been outshot 6 times, winning everyone but one (5-0-1).

So, of course, I just present you a problem, anyone else have any answers?

Detroit has the best winning percentage in the league when outshooting their opponent as of today: 8-2-0.  They are 2-1-1 when being outshot, while 1-0-0 when even with their opponent.  Nothing too interesting there other than the fact that Detroit really does dominate in their wins. 

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